The Problem with Cocoa: How can the Industry Futureproof Itself and Become More Resilient?

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The cocoa industry is directly responsible for the happiness of many chocolate lovers from all over the world, but it is buckling under the strain of several different challenges nowadays, and many worry that the sector might be doomed. Others think that these predictions are overly pessimistic and that there’s nothing to indicate that the sector will essentially disappear over the next few years. However, things will definitely need to change. Most producers and manufacturers are looking to work with a cocoa powder supplier that can deliver sustainability, high-quality products, and consistency all at the same time.

The difficulties that the crops and farmers are struggling with now, though, namely diseases such as the Swollen Shoot Virus and black pod rot, as well as the effects of climate change, namely extreme droughts followed by excessive rainfall, make this difficult, though, since the people are struggling to maintain a steady income as well.

The threats

One of the main issues the cocoa industry is dealing with is that there are not enough young trees out there. Many of the ones currently producing cocoa beans are more than twenty-five years old and therefore less productive. Poor infrastructure often ends up restricting the transport of goods as well, reducing the revenue of farmers even further. The extreme weather and climate shifts occurring as a result of global warming are very problematic, as they damage the very structure of the trees due to extreme heat and unpredictable rainfall.

This problem holds the very real potential of making cocoa powder increasingly more expensive over the next few years, to the point where it will become difficult for both confectionery manufacturers and customers to keep up with the costs. Fungal diseases and CSSV cause considerable damage, with some areas recording incredibly steep infection rates, with more than 80% of trees directly impacted. The crowded conditions occurring because people tend to plant many trees close together in order to increase yields and, as a result, their revenue, are one of the main reasons why the diseases have spread so fast.

Socio-economic factors have been cited as well, since the farmers operating in the areas where cocoa trees are most common tend to have very low and unstable incomes. The poverty they have to deal with causes many to abandon the sector and farms to search for better jobs and opportunities. The expansion of farms into woodland has destroyed biodiversity, soil depletion, and exacerbated the effects of the climate crisis in these areas, conditions that, in turn, place a lot of strain on crops and yields as well. In some regions, the cocoa trees are threatened by land encroachment and illegal mining as well, causing severe soil degradation and the direct destruction of many farms alongside the release of toxic chemicals like cyanide and mercury, which significantly contaminate the soil.

Solutions for the future

To prevent incredibly steep prices or even a future collapse of the industry, the marketplace needs to prepare for these issues and find realistic solutions for the problems. Sustainable farming needs to become the norm, and fair trade must be implemented across all areas of production. The times when sustainability was nothing more than a marketing slogan are something of the past. Having eco-friendly practices in place nowadays is something that could make or break entire supply chains.

Agroforestry is one of the solutions, as integrating the trees into ecosystems that are resilient can safeguard them against drought and floods. The effort required to produce chocolate bars should receive adequate remuneration as well, so that the farmers aren’t worried about their livelihoods and their ability to support their families. The market needs to find the balance between keeping chocolate reasonably affordable without forgetting that the people who work so that customers can enjoy it shouldn’t be ripped off either.

Cocoa’s complexity makes it unlikely that any other ingredient could realistically replicate and replace the products found on the market today, but market experts believe that there’s no need for that in the first place and that there’s room for all kinds of products out there due to the very different tastes that people have as well as the curiosity that drives many to try products they hadn’t tried before.

The potential changes

Having a cohesive and comprehensive plan starts by understanding the potential changes that will more likely than not impact the marketplace. First of all, it is essential to acknowledge that cocoa will not become extinct, but also understand that cocoa-growing regions could become unsuitable for production by the middle of the century. That is only if no changes are made to the way in which things are carried out at the moment, though.

There’s also the possibility of shifting geography and moving cocoa farms to other regions and areas. While the countries that produce the most cocoa nowadays, such as Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana, are quite heavily impacted, potential new sites like Cameroon, Liberia, and Ecuador are not. These areas haven’t been as exhausted by human activity. All new areas need to have fertile soil, but they must be protected as well so that the cycle isn’t repeated until more and more areas are depleted of their resources.

Technological innovations could change how cocoa is grown. Climate-smart agriculture and the use of non-chemical fertilizers such as compost or biochar will become increasingly popular as well. Production models in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana are changing as well in order to become more resistant to climate change.

The bottom line

Most industries have been forced to shift and change for many different reasons throughout their entire history. Markets and trends change and fluctuate, but the most pressing issue nowadays, especially when it comes to agriculture, is climate change. Its impact on crops is entirely unpredictable and hasn’t been seen before, making it difficult to know what you should be preparing for in the first place. Keeping up with the latest scientific and tech developments, as well as preparing for a more unstable future, are the best things that farmers and chocolate producers can do.