Why 2026 Is Shaping Up to Be One of The Toughest Years Yet for Contested Wills

Probate disputes in England and Wales aren't just rising; they're setting new records every year, and the numbers all point the same way: this is a structural trend, not a blip.

As mentioned by a variety of sources associated with UK inheritance dispute statistics, in 2025, a record 1,217 disputed probate cases were filed at the High Court, up almost 49% on 2020 levels. Probate caveats, the formal applications used to pause an estate before it's granted, topped 11,300 for the second year running, 55% above 2019 levels. An estimated 10,000 people a year now contest a will informally, outside the courts altogether.

For solicitors and private client teams, this isn't abstract. It's a shift in the day-to-day risk of every estate they administer. So what's driving it, and what should firms do differently?

An Ageing Population Is Raising Capacity Questions

The UK's demographic profile is changing fast. By 2041, over a quarter of the population will be 65 or over, up from 18% in 2016. Around 982,000 people in the UK live with dementia, projected to exceed 1.4 million by 2040, roughly one in eleven of those over 65.

Where there's any question over a testator's state of mind when a will was signed, a capacity challenge becomes almost inevitable. Dan Brown, Divisional Director at LawSure Insurance, a specialist insurance intermediary providing legal indemnity and risk insurance solutions, explains:

"The rise in capacity-related disputes is something we are seeing reflected not just in claims, but in the types of risks solicitors are seeking to mitigate earlier in the process. Where wills are made later in life, the evidential burden can become critical if a challenge arises. 

From an insurance perspective, a well-documented file is one of the most effective protections against future disputes. The increase in caveats highlights the importance of treating every instruction as potentially contentious and managing that risk accordingly."

Blended Families Are Now the Number One Trigger

Family structures have shifted just as sharply. Nearly 30% of UK marriages are now second or subsequent marriages, and blended families and stepchildren are cited by 68% of estate professionals as the biggest source of inheritance conflict. Around 41% report more disagreements over the past year alone.

That's feeding into the courts. Claims under the Inheritance Act 1975, brought by dependants who feel a will left them without reasonable provision, jumped 61% between 2020/21 and 2024/25. Where relationships have fractured, a caveat is increasingly used as a tactical move: pause the estate, force a negotiation.

Money Is the Real Accelerant

Rising asset values and a frozen inheritance tax threshold have raised the stakes. IHT receipts hit £8.5 billion in 2025/26, a fifth consecutive annual record, forecast to reach £9 billion by 2026/27. The nil-rate band has sat at £325,000 since 2021/22 and is now frozen through to 2030/31, pulling more ordinary estates into liability every year.

At the same time, younger generations face a widening wealth gap and a housing market that's pushed inheritance up the list of realistic paths to security. That changes the calculation: where a disappointed beneficiary might once have let a modest disagreement go, the incentive to contest is now real, even on smaller estates.

Brown sees this shift in how firms are managing exposure:

"What we are increasingly seeing is that disputes are being driven as much by financial pressure as by legal merit. As estate values rise, so too does the willingness of disappointed beneficiaries to pursue a claim. 

From an insurance standpoint, this changes the risk profile significantly. Even where a will is robust, the cost of defending a challenge can be substantial, which is why more solicitors and clients are exploring insurance solutions to manage that exposure proactively."

Poor Documentation Is Still a Major, Avoidable Cause

DIY wills and gaps in paperwork remain a significant, avoidable driver. In 2024, around 15,000 probate cases stalled due to missing or incorrect executor information. More than half of those aged 50 to 64 have no will at all, and 51,140 estates were administered without a valid will in 2024, a five-year high, up 17% year on year. Intestacy at that scale almost guarantees disagreement over what the deceased would have wanted.

What Firms Should Take From This

None of these pressures is easing. The population is ageing, thresholds remain frozen, and family structures keep growing more complex. For solicitors, that means treating every will instruction as potentially contentious: thorough attendance notes, clear capacity assessments, and open communication with beneficiaries from the outset.

Brown's closing point is worth sitting with:

"The growth in contentious probate is fundamentally reshaping the risk landscape for firms. It is no longer enough to focus solely on legal accuracy; firms also need to consider how disputes will be funded, managed, and resolved if they arise. 

Insurance plays a key role in that process, whether by protecting the estate, the beneficiaries, or the solicitor's position. As claims frequency increases, having the right risk transfer mechanisms in place is becoming an essential part of modern probate practice."

Products like missing beneficiary and missing will insurance are increasingly part of that conversation. As disputes keep climbing, helping clients understand both their legal position and their insurance options is fast becoming a baseline of good private client advice.